Can People Predict Chaotic Sequences?

Previous studies suggesting that people predict chaotic sequences better than chance have not discriminated between sensitivity to nonlinear determinism and facilitation using autocorrelation. Since prediction accuracy declines with increases in the look-ahead window in both cases, a decline in prediction accuracy does not imply chaos sensitivity. To overcome this problem, phase-randomized surrogate time series are used as a control. Such series have the same linear properties as the original chaotic sequence but contain no nonlinear determinism, i.e. chaos. In the experimental task, using a chaotic Hénon attractor, participants viewed the previous eight days temperatures and then predicted temperatures for the next four days, over 120 trials. The control group experienced a sample from a corresponding phase-randomized surrogate series. Both time series were linearly transformed to provide a realistic temperature range. A transformation of the correlation between observed and predicted values decreased over days for the chaotic time series, but remained constant and high for the surrogate series. The interaction between the days and series factors was statistically significant, suggesting that people are sensitive to chaos, even when the autocorrelation functions and power spectra of the control and experimental series are identical. Implications for the psychological assessment of individual differences in human prediction are discussed.     

Constitutive equations from Gaussian slip-link network theories in polymer melt rheology

Allowing for flow-dependent slip in the junctions of a temporary junction network, we derive the constitutive equations of temporary slip-link networks. The stress tensor is determined by three material functions, namely, the time-dependent linear-viscoelastic memory function, and two strain-dependent functions describing slip and disentanglement of network strands. Slip and disentanglement are related via a mass balance for network strands.By specifying slip and disentanglement, the constitutive equations of Lodge, Wagner, Doi-Edwards, and Marrucci are shown to be special temporary slip-link constitutive equations. To demonstrate the predictive power of temporary slip-link network theories, we compare predictions and extensional flow data with step change in flow direction.Dedicated to Professor Arthur S. Lodge on the occasion of his 70th birthday and his retirement from the University of Wisconsin.     

IUPAC-LDPE的流变性测试实验之间的相对滑动

以IUPAC—LDPE熔体在150℃下详细的流变学表征实验和毛细管挤出实验为基础考察了该熔体在挤出实验中的滑动问题．根据相对滑动特性给出了判断相对滑动存在和计算相对滑动速度的方法．用Wagner模型，PSM模型和Osaki模型计算的表观剪切速率，在10s^-1时的毛细管壁面剪切应力比毛细管挤出实验给出的应力值高出约15％-17％，这个结果意味着IUPAC—LDPE熔体在挤出实验中存在滑动现象．在表观剪切速率为0．1，1．0和10s^-1时，挤出实验条件下的流动与根据在旋转流变仪上测定的流变特性用PSM模型计算的流动相比，它们之间存在的相对滑动速度分别为0．004，0．071和1．343mm／s．用Wagner模型和Osaki模型计算的相对滑动速度与PSM模型的结果相近．     

Adiabatic shear band localization of inelastic single crystals in symmetric double-slip process

Summary The main objective of the present paper is the development of a viscoplastic regularization procedure valid for an adiabatic dynamic process for multi-slips of single crystals. The next objective is to focus attention on the investigation of instability criteria, and particularly on shear band localization conditions.To achieve this aim, an analysis of acceleration waves is given, and advantage is taken of the notion of the instantaneous adiabatic acoustic tensor. If zero is an eigenvalue of the acoustic tensor, then the associated discontinuity does not propagate, and one speaks of a stationary discontinuity. This situation is referred to as the strain localization condition, and corresponds to a loss of hyperbolicity of the dynamical equations. It has been proved that for an, adiabatic process of rate-dependent (elastic-viscoplastic) crystal, the wave speed of discontinuity surface always remains real and different from zero. It means that for this case the initial-value problem is well-posed. However, for an adiabatic process of rate-independent(elastic-plastic) crystal, the wave speed of discontinuity surface can be equal zero. Then the necessary condition for a localized plastic deformation along the shear band to be formed is as follows: the determinant of the instantaneous adiabatic acoustic tensor is equal to zero. This condition for localization is equivalent to that obtained by using the standard bifurcation method. Based on this idea, the conditions for adiabatic shear band localization of plastic deformation have been investigated for single crystals. Particular attention has been focused on the discussion of the influence of thermal expansion, thermal plastic, softening and spatial covariance effects on shear band localization criteria for a planar model of an f.c.c. crystal undergoing symmetric primary-conjugate double slip. The results obtained have been compared with available experimental observations.Finally, it is noteworthy that the viscoplasticity regularization procedure can be used in the developing of an unconditionally stable numerical integration algorithm for simulation of adiabatic inelastic flow processes in ductile single crystals, cf. [21].The paper has been prepared within research programme sponsored by the Committee of Scientific Research under Grant 3 P404 031 07.     

中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型在滑坡变形预测中的应用

黄龙西村滑坡位于甘肃天水,属黄土高势能滑坡,滑体体积3.9×10⁵m³,基底为花岗闪长岩。为了提高滑坡灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,采用一种改变背景值的方法--中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型。通过黄龙西村滑坡实例验证分析,结果表明中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测值与该滑坡实际监测值十分接近,且其残差平方和及平均误差百分比明显比传统灰色GM(1,1)模型的残差平方和及平均误差百分比小,具有较高的预测精度。同时,可通过调整模型中参数m的取值,使中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型具有更高的预测精度。经计算,当m=6时,中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度比传统灰色GM(1,1)模型提高了5.34%。     

润滑剂边界滑移及其对弹流润滑特性的影响

基于润滑剂在弹性流体动力润滑状态下表现出类似塑件固体的非牛顿特性，根据塑性屈服和流体动力润滑理论，建立了考虑润滑剂在固液界面滑移的线接触弹流润滑失效预测模型。计算结果显示：载荷和滑滚比对润滑油膜厚度影响显著；在一定载荷和滑滚比下，润滑油膜将丧失承载能力而破裂。与现有理论及实验数据对比，线接触弹流润滑失效预测模型的计算结果与实验结果具有较好的一致性。     

地震预报的新途径--加卸载响应比理论

从力学角度看,地震的孕育过程实质上是孕震区介质的损伤演化过程,这个过程主要是一个力学过程．但解决与地震预测有关的力学问题与工程中的力学问题有许多不同之处．通常力学问题的解决需要知道其本构关系、边界条件、初始条件以及某些力学量的变化历史(如流变)．但是在地震孕育过程中它们却是未知的或不完全知道的．人们知道的只是地壳中某些物理量的变化．由此提出了加卸载响应比作为一种地震预测的新途径,并简述了加卸载响应比的基本概念、实际应用及一些最新结果．     

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利用模拟装置实现了卡瓦与套管在地面上的实验，使用电测的方法测量胀卡时套管外表面的应变．由实验数据获得计算网格节点处的应变，同时利用单位咬合力作用套管的有限元结果进行数值法计算，获得卡瓦各咬合齿对套管咬合力的分布，为卡瓦的优化设计提供了可靠数据．     

Flow development of xanthan solutions in capillary rheometers

Flow experiments through capillaries with 0.2% xanthan in aqueous solution and 0.1 N NaCl brine were carried out to study the influence of the molecular conformation on the flow development at relatively low shear rates, from 20s^–1 to 400s^–1. Capillaries with a wide range of length-to-diameter ratios, L/D = 4.5 to 1015 were used.The apparent viscosity as a function of L/D at a constant shear rate shows a continuous decrement of the viscosity as L/D increases, until an asymptotic value is reached. The decrement in the apparent viscosity is partially explained in terms of slip. It was found that slip is a function of L/D as well as shear stress, i.e., slip develops during flow, thus inducing spatial anisotropy in the fluid until a stable state is reached. However, the substantial difference in apparent viscosity between short capillaries and capillaries longer than 300 D may be attributed to dominant elongational flow due to the contraction in the small capillaries and slip in long capillaries.The flow in a sufficiently long capillary can be divided in four regions rather than three, as is usually assumed. In the first region, which corresponds to the entry, elongational and shear flow coexist and elongational flow dominant. In the second region, end effects and slip development are coupled. In the third region the flow is fully developed and end effects are negligible. However, the fluid shows physical characteristics different from those of the fluid at rest, as a consequence of prior slip development. The fourth zone is the exit region in which the velocity rearranges due to the change of boundary conditions. The length of each region depends on the conformation of the macromolecules and shear rate. In addition, it was found that the stiffness of xanthan increases with the increase of the ionic strength.Finally, a performance of Bagley's analysis in the whole range of L/D studied showed that the use of the Bagley correction is not a reliable way to correct for end effects when the flow is not fully developed and/or in the presence of slip.Dedicated to Arthur S. Lodge at the occasion of his 70th birthday and his retirement from the University of Wisconsin.     

The effect of slip in the flow of a branched PP melt: experiments and simulations

In this paper visualisation and direct velocity profile measurement experiments for a branched polypropylene melt in a 10:1 axisymmetric contraction demonstrate the onset of wall slip. Video processing of the flow shows the formation of vortices and their diminution with increasing flow rate. Numerical simulations using a multimode K-BKZ viscoelastic and a purely viscous (Cross) model—both of them incorporating a nonlinear slip law—were used to predict the flow kinematics and dynamics as well as to deduce the slip velocity function by performing fitting to the velocity profiles. It was found that the numerical predictions agree well with the experimental results for the velocity profiles, and vortex formation, growth and reduction. It is suggested that such experiments (visualisation of entrance flow and direct velocity profile measurement) can be useful in evaluating the validity of constitutive equations and slip laws in the flow of polymer melts through processing equipment.